Carroll (FW)
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #1
New Haven Semi-State Rank #1
West Noble Regional Rank #1
Northrop Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 59.6%
Top 5 at State Finals 98.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 100.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 133 210 145 432 70 191 154 174 146 112
Team Adjusted Rating 143 144 133 70 191 154 140 146 112
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington North Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational Flashrock Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
12  Cole Powers 10 15:55 15:56 16:11 15:53 16:21 16:10 15:59 15:48
17  Carter Meyer 12 16:02 15:52 15:47 16:12 16:11 16:07 16:04 15:55
30  Connor Goetz 11 16:09 16:34 16:18 15:53 16:21 16:10 16:09 16:04 16:12
34  Dawson Winters 12 16:11 16:13 16:12 15:54 16:21 16:10 16:15 16:16 16:09
40  Draven Thompson 10 16:15 15:51 16:40 16:21 16:33 16:31 16:08
53  Braden Clements 12 16:22 16:19 16:16 15:51 16:21 16:23 16:18 16:38 16:19
145  Cory Waldron 10 16:46 16:52 16:47 16:28 17:04 16:45 17:09 16:39
176  Weston Miser 10 16:53 16:52
202  Jack Just 11 16:59 16:54 16:52 16:46 17:12 17:09
293  Zachary Sorg 12 17:14 17:11 17:14 17:03 17:26
339  Cooper Green 10 17:19 17:10 17:24 17:15 16:58 17:48
341  Hunter Wallace 10 17:19 17:14 16:52 17:34 18:01 17:17 17:10
358  Chase Miguel 10 17:21 17:28 17:16 17:32 17:16
387  Will Terry 11 17:25 17:30 17:16 17:42 17:20
630  Zach Ingermann 11 17:49 17:45 17:43 18:05 17:49
639  Hayden Mullett 9 17:49 17:43 17:46 18:00 17:51
860  Zayaan Habib 9 18:07 18:14 18:02
885  Andrew Zehr 12 18:09 17:46 17:53 18:29 18:34
1,163  Ryan Haffner 12 18:29 17:53 18:28 18:40 18:47
1,290  Samuel Burchett 11 18:38 18:33 18:48 18:38
1,396  Tim Derose 9 18:46 18:24 18:35 18:54 19:18
1,543  Henry Wellman 9 18:58 18:34 19:06 19:26 18:53
Seth Ernest 11 19:09 18:41 19:24 19:13
Logan Meyer 10 19:13 19:36 18:56




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 1.7 99 59.6 25.9 8.4 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 100% 1.0 36 96.3 3.5 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.0 32 96.4 3.3 0.3 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 24 96.9 3.0 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Powers 100% 13.0 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.0 4.1 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 100.0%
Carter Meyer 100% 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.5 99.9%
Connor Goetz 100% 32.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.5 99.6%
Dawson Winters 100% 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.1 99.3%
Draven Thompson 100% 43.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 98.2%
Braden Clements 100% 58.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 94.7%
Cory Waldron 100% 116.6 0.0 0.0 34.2%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Powers 100% 3.6 12.1 14.8 15.5 13.9 12.1 10.0 7.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Carter Meyer 100% 6.2 2.1 5.2 7.8 9.5 10.9 12.1 11.7 9.6 8.0 5.9 5.2 3.5 2.5 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Connor Goetz 100% 9.4 0.3 0.7 2.1 3.4 5.3 6.4 8.4 9.7 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.4 6.1 4.8 4.0 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Dawson Winters 100% 10.5 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.4 6.7 7.6 9.5 8.9 8.9 8.2 7.2 6.7 4.7 3.7 3.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 100.0%
Draven Thompson 100% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 3.5 5.5 6.8 7.7 8.2 8.1 8.5 7.3 6.6 5.9 4.8 4.5 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 100.0%
Braden Clements 100% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.5 5.3 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.6 6.2 6.1 5.8 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.2 2.9 2.4 100.0%
Cory Waldron 100% 32.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 98.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Powers 100% 2.2 21.6 24.8 18.8 16.5 9.2 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Carter Meyer 100% 4.2 3.9 10.1 15.7 16.6 17.9 13.0 9.0 5.0 3.4 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Connor Goetz 100% 6.5 0.5 1.9 5.0 8.9 12.0 14.8 14.0 11.6 9.4 6.7 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Dawson Winters 100% 7.2 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.9 9.6 13.2 14.3 13.5 10.4 8.1 5.7 4.4 3.4 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Draven Thompson 100% 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 5.3 7.8 10.8 13.2 12.5 11.1 7.9 7.0 5.2 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Braden Clements 100% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.4 7.0 10.1 10.8 10.9 9.9 8.5 7.3 5.8 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 100.0%
Cory Waldron 100% 22.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cole Powers 1.5 30.6 42.0 16.5 6.5 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carter Meyer 2.7 6.3 20.0 32.5 18.4 10.4 5.6 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Connor Goetz 4.6 0.8 4.6 11.8 21.0 19.7 14.6 10.0 6.8 4.1 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dawson Winters 5.2 0.3 2.4 7.9 16.3 18.9 17.3 12.7 8.4 5.5 3.7 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Draven Thompson 6.4 0.1 1.0 3.7 8.1 13.2 17.2 16.5 12.8 8.5 6.3 4.6 2.9 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Braden Clements 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 8.3 14.8 15.2 14.1 10.3 8.5 6.7 5.1 4.1 2.6 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cory Waldron 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 2.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 7.1 8.7 11.0 13.5 13.6 13.0 7.8 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1